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Cycle Performance (Halving)

Price performance comparison from halvings

PropertyValue
CategoryMarket Data
Unitindex
Resolution1d
AssetsBTC
TierBasic
API EndpointGET /v1/cycle-performance
Fieldcycles

Overview

Cycle Performance (Halving) compares Bitcoin's price trajectory across historical market cycles, aligned by each Bitcoin halving event. Halvings reduce the block reward by 50%, historically triggering significant bull runs. Each cycle starts at an index value of 1.0 on the halving date.

Cycle Dates

CycleHalving DateBlock RewardLabel
12012-11-2850 → 25 BTC2012-2016
22016-07-0925 → 12.5 BTC2016-2020
32020-05-1112.5 → 6.25 BTC2020-2024
42024-04-206.25 → 3.125 BTC2024+ (current)

Formula

Index(t)=Price(t)Price(halving date)\text{Index}(t) = \frac{\text{Price}(t)}{\text{Price}(\text{halving date})}

A value of 1.0 means price equals the halving-day price. A value of 5.0 means price has 5x'd since the halving.

Interpretation

  • All cycles start at 1.0 on the halving date
  • Historically, the largest gains occur 12–18 months after the halving
  • Each successive cycle tends to produce diminishing maximum multipliers
  • The first halving cycle saw the largest gains (over 100x), while later cycles peaked at 15–30x
  • Pre-halving price action (slight decline or consolidation) is also visible

Use Cases

  • Post-halving rally timing: How far along is the current cycle compared to past post-halving rallies?
  • Supply shock analysis: Does the current halving's impact match historical patterns?
  • Peak estimation: Historical cycles peaked at specific multipliers — useful as reference points
  • Diminishing returns: Track whether the law of diminishing returns continues across halvings

API Usage

curl -H "Authorization: Bearer YOUR_API_KEY" \
"https://api.blocklens.co/v1/cycle-performance?start_date=2024-01-01&end_date=2024-12-31&limit=365"