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LTH NUPL

Net Unrealized Profit/Loss ratio for Long-Term Holders

PropertyValue
CategoryProfit & Loss
UnitDimensionless
Resolution1d
AssetsBTC
TierPro
API EndpointGET /v1/holder/profit
Fieldlth_nupl

Overview​

LTH NUPL (Long-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) measures the aggregate unrealized profit or loss held by long-term Bitcoin holders as a proportion of their total market value. Long-term holders are defined as addresses that have held their Bitcoin for more than 155 days, a threshold that statistically separates conviction-driven holders from short-term speculators.

While the general NUPL metric captures the unrealized profit/loss across all Bitcoin holders, LTH NUPL isolates the sentiment and positioning of the most experienced and typically price-insensitive cohort. Long-term holders represent the "smart money" of the Bitcoin network — they have weathered at least one full market cycle phase and their collective behavior often precedes major market turning points. By filtering out short-term noise, LTH NUPL provides a cleaner signal of deep market structure.

The behavior of long-term holders is particularly significant because they control a substantial share of Bitcoin's total supply. When LTH NUPL reaches extreme values — either high profit or deep loss — it historically signals inflection points in market cycles. Long-term holders distributing at high NUPL values have marked cycle tops, while their accumulation during negative NUPL readings has consistently aligned with generational buying opportunities.

Formula​

LTH NUPL=LTH Market Cap−LTH Realized CapLTH Market Cap\text{LTH NUPL} = \frac{\text{LTH Market Cap} - \text{LTH Realized Cap}}{\text{LTH Market Cap}}

Where:

  • LTH Market Cap — The total market value of all UTXOs held by long-term holders (age > 155 days), calculated as the sum of all LTH-held BTC multiplied by the current spot price.
  • LTH Realized Cap — The total value of all LTH-held UTXOs priced at the time they were last moved (their cost basis). This represents the aggregate acquisition cost of the long-term holder cohort.
  • The numerator (LTH Market Cap − LTH Realized Cap) represents the total unrealized profit (or loss, if negative) held by long-term holders.
  • Dividing by LTH Market Cap normalizes the result as a ratio between −1 and 1, making it comparable across different price levels and market cycles.

Interpretation​

  • LTH NUPL > 0.75 (Euphoria): Long-term holders are sitting on extreme unrealized gains. Historically, this zone precedes distribution phases where LTHs begin selling into market strength. This is a strong signal of cycle top formation and elevated risk for new buyers.

  • LTH NUPL 0.50 – 0.75 (Belief / Greed): LTHs are in significant profit and market sentiment is bullish. The bull market is mature but may still have room to run. Watch for acceleration toward the euphoria zone as a warning signal.

  • LTH NUPL 0.25 – 0.50 (Optimism): Long-term holders are moderately profitable. This range is typical of early-to-mid bull markets or recovery phases. LTHs are generally accumulating or holding, providing a stable supply floor.

  • LTH NUPL 0.00 – 0.25 (Hope / Anxiety): LTHs are near their break-even point. This transitional zone often appears during early recoveries or late-stage corrections. The direction of the trend from this zone is a key signal — rising NUPL suggests recovery, while falling NUPL warns of deeper capitulation.

  • LTH NUPL < 0.00 (Capitulation): Long-term holders are collectively underwater, meaning the market price is below their average cost basis. This is historically rare and has coincided with the deepest bear market bottoms. Negative LTH NUPL readings represent periods of maximum pain and, historically, the highest-conviction buying opportunities.

Use Cases​

  • Cycle top identification: Monitor LTH NUPL approaching or exceeding 0.75 as a distribution warning. When long-term holders begin realizing extreme profits, the supply dynamics shift as previously dormant coins re-enter circulation, increasing sell pressure.

  • Bear market bottom confirmation: Negative LTH NUPL readings have historically aligned with generational accumulation zones. Combine with on-chain volume and exchange flow data to confirm capitulation events and identify high-probability long-term entry points.

  • Divergence analysis with STH NUPL: Compare LTH NUPL against short-term holder NUPL to gauge cohort disagreement. When LTH NUPL is high but STH NUPL is falling, it may indicate that late entrants are being shaken out while long-term holders maintain conviction — a potential continuation signal.

  • Supply dynamics forecasting: Rising LTH NUPL increases the probability of future distribution. Track the rate of change in LTH NUPL alongside exchange inflow data to anticipate when long-term holders may begin moving coins to exchanges for sale.

  • Risk-adjusted position sizing: Use LTH NUPL as a macro risk indicator for portfolio allocation. Reduce exposure or tighten risk management when LTH NUPL enters the euphoria zone, and increase allocation during capitulation phases when long-term holders are underwater, aligning portfolio strategy with the behavior of Bitcoin's most experienced participants.

API Usage​

curl -H "Authorization: Bearer YOUR_API_KEY" \
  "https://api.blocklens.co/v1/holder/profit?start_date=2024-01-01&end_date=2024-12-31&limit=365"