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STH NUPL

Net Unrealized Profit/Loss ratio for Short-Term Holders

PropertyValue
CategoryProfit & Loss
UnitDimensionless
Resolution1d
AssetsBTC
TierPro
API EndpointGET /v1/holder/profit
Fieldsth_nupl

Overview​

Short-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (STH NUPL) measures the aggregate profit or loss state of coins held by short-term holders — those who acquired their Bitcoin within the last 155 days. Unlike whole-market NUPL, this metric isolates the sentiment and financial position of recent market participants, who are statistically more likely to react to price movements by selling.

Short-term holders represent the active, speculative segment of the market. Their behavior drives short-term volatility, local tops, and panic bottoms. STH NUPL captures whether this cohort is collectively sitting on unrealized gains or losses, providing a direct read on the emotional state of the most reactive portion of the Bitcoin supply.

When STH NUPL is positive, short-term holders are in profit on average — a condition that can fuel further buying confidence or signal that a local top is forming as holders become tempted to realize gains. When STH NUPL turns negative, short-term holders are underwater, which historically correlates with capitulation events, panic selling, and the formation of local or macro bottoms.

Formula​

STH NUPL=STH Market Cap−STH Realized CapSTH Market Cap\text{STH NUPL} = \frac{\text{STH Market Cap} - \text{STH Realized Cap}}{\text{STH Market Cap}}

Where:

  • STH Market Cap is the total value of all coins held by short-term holders (≤155 days) priced at the current spot price.
  • STH Realized Cap is the total value of those same coins priced at the cost basis when each coin was last moved (i.e., the price at acquisition).

The result is a ratio bounded between negative values (when the cohort is at a loss) and 1 (theoretical maximum profit). A value of 0 indicates the breakeven point where short-term holders collectively have no unrealized profit or loss.

Interpretation​

STH NUPL RangeMarket ConditionTypical Behavior
> 0.4Euphoria / OverheatedShort-term holders sitting on significant gains; elevated sell pressure likely. Historically precedes local tops.
0.2 – 0.4Optimism / ProfitHealthy profit levels; trend continuation likely but watch for divergences.
0 – 0.2Hope / Mild ProfitMarginal profitability; market at an inflection point.
-0.2 – 0Anxiety / Mild LossShort-term holders slightly underwater; selling pressure from loss aversion.
< -0.2Capitulation / Deep LossSignificant unrealized losses; historically marks accumulation zones and local bottoms as weak hands capitulate.

Key signals to watch:

  • Zero-line crosses: When STH NUPL crosses from negative to positive (or vice versa), it signals a regime change in short-term holder sentiment. Upward crosses often confirm bullish trend resumption; downward crosses can indicate the start of a correction.
  • Divergences with price: If price makes a new high but STH NUPL prints a lower high, it suggests that new buyers are entering at increasingly unfavorable cost bases — a bearish divergence.
  • Rapid drops into deep negative territory: These mark panic events among recent buyers and frequently coincide with high-volume capitulation candles.

Use Cases​

  • Identifying local tops and bottoms: STH NUPL extremes reliably flag zones where short-term holders are most likely to act — selling in euphoria or capitulating in fear. Traders use these extremes as contrarian signals.
  • Confirming trend strength: A sustained positive STH NUPL during an uptrend indicates that new participants continue to be rewarded, reinforcing the bullish cycle. Conversely, a persistently negative STH NUPL during a downtrend confirms that buyers are consistently trapped.
  • Timing entries during corrections: During bull market pullbacks, STH NUPL dipping to or slightly below zero often marks the optimal re-entry zone. This is the point where weak short-term hands have been flushed out but long-term structural demand remains intact.
  • Comparing with related metrics: Pairing STH NUPL with STH MVRV provides a complementary view — MVRV gives the ratio of market value to realized value, while NUPL normalizes the difference as a proportion of market cap. Cross-referencing with STH Unrealized P/L separates the profit and loss components for deeper analysis. Comparing STH NUPL against whole-market NUPL reveals whether short-term holders are more or less profitable than the broader market, highlighting divergences between speculative and conviction-driven capital.

API Usage​

curl -H "Authorization: Bearer YOUR_API_KEY" \
  "https://api.blocklens.co/v1/holder/profit?start_date=2024-01-01&end_date=2024-12-31&limit=365"