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Supply in Profit (%)

Share of total supply where cost basis is below current market price

PropertyValue
CategoryProfitability Metrics
UnitDimensionless
Resolution1d
AssetsBTC
TierBasic
API EndpointGET /v1/holder/profit
Fieldsupply_in_profit_pct

Overview

Supply in Profit (%) measures the percentage of total circulating Bitcoin supply that is currently held at an unrealized profit — meaning the price at the time each UTXO was created (cost basis) is lower than the current market price.

This metric provides a direct read on the aggregate profitability state of the Bitcoin network. When a high percentage of supply is in profit, more holders are incentivized to sell, creating potential resistance. When a low percentage is in profit, most holders are underwater and capitulation may be near.

Formula

Supply in Profit (%)=UTXO amount where cost basis<current priceCirculating Supply×100\text{Supply in Profit (\%)} = \frac{\sum \text{UTXO amount where cost basis} \lt \text{current price}}{\text{Circulating Supply}} \times 100

Where cost basis for each UTXO is calculated as the USD value at creation divided by the token amount.

Interpretation

  • Values above 90% indicate euphoria — nearly all holders are in profit, historically associated with market tops and increased sell pressure
  • Values between 50-90% represent a healthy market with mixed sentiment
  • Values below 50% suggest widespread unrealized losses, often seen during bear market bottoms and capitulation events
  • Local minimums in this metric have historically aligned with generational buying opportunities
  • Rapid drops from high levels signal momentum shifts and potential trend reversals

Use Cases

  • Cycle top identification: Sustained readings above 95% have preceded every major market top
  • Bottom fishing: Readings below 50% combined with declining volatility signal accumulation zones
  • Risk management: Monitor the rate of change — a sharp decline from elevated levels suggests profit-taking is accelerating
  • Confluence with NUPL: Compare with Net Unrealized Profit/Loss for a volume-weighted vs. supply-weighted perspective on market profitability

API Usage

curl -H "Authorization: Bearer YOUR_API_KEY" \
"https://api.blocklens.co/v1/holder/profit?start_date=2024-01-01&end_date=2024-12-31&limit=365"
  • NUPL — Net Unrealized Profit/Loss as a ratio of market cap
  • LTH NUPL — Net Unrealized Profit/Loss ratio for Long-Term Holders
  • STH NUPL — Net Unrealized Profit/Loss ratio for Short-Term Holders
  • SOPR — Aggregate profit ratio of spent outputs