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NUPL

Net Unrealized Profit/Loss as a ratio of market cap

PropertyValue
CategoryProfit & Loss
UnitDimensionless
Resolution1d
AssetsBTC
TierPro
API EndpointGET /v1/holder/profit
Fieldnupl

Overview​

NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) measures the overall profit/loss position of all Bitcoin holders as a percentage of the market capitalization. Unlike absolute metrics like Unrealized P/L, NUPL normalizes the unrealized gains/losses relative to market cap, making it easier to compare across different Bitcoin price levels and market cycles.

NUPL is calculated as (Market Cap - Realized Cap) / Market Cap, effectively showing what percentage of the current market value represents unrealized profit or loss. Values range from -1 to +1, with positive values indicating network-wide unrealized profits.

Formula​

NUPL=Market Cap−Realized CapMarket Cap\text{NUPL} = \frac{\text{Market Cap} - \text{Realized Cap}}{\text{Market Cap}}

Where:

  • Market Cap = Current BTC price × circulating supply
  • Realized Cap = Sum of each UTXO valued at its last-moved price

Alternatively: NUPL=1−Realized CapMarket Cap=1−1MVRV\text{NUPL} = 1 - \frac{\text{Realized Cap}}{\text{Market Cap}} = 1 - \frac{1}{\text{MVRV}}

Interpretation​

  • NUPL > 0.75: Extreme greed zone. Historically marks cycle tops and distribution phases. Network holds massive unrealized gains.
  • NUPL 0.5-0.75: Greed zone. Rising distribution risk as holders sit on significant profits.
  • NUPL 0.25-0.5: Optimism zone. Moderate unrealized gains, generally bullish but sustainable.
  • NUPL 0-0.25: Hope/anxiety zone. Mixed sentiment, early bull market or late bear market.
  • NUPL < 0: Fear/capitulation zone. Network-wide unrealized losses. Historically excellent accumulation opportunities.

Use Cases​

  • Cycle timing: NUPL extremes (>0.75 or <0) have consistently marked major cycle inflection points.
  • Risk management: Rising NUPL indicates increasing probability of profit-taking and potential corrections.
  • Market sentiment gauge: Real-time measure of aggregate holder psychology - greed vs fear.
  • Dollar-cost averaging timing: NUPL <0.25 has historically provided superior long-term entry points.
  • Portfolio rebalancing: High NUPL suggests reducing Bitcoin allocation; low NUPL suggests increasing it.

API Usage​

curl -H "Authorization: Bearer YOUR_API_KEY" \
  "https://api.blocklens.co/v1/holder/profit?start_date=2024-01-01&end_date=2024-12-31&limit=365"
  • Unrealized P/L — Aggregate unrealized profit/loss across all holders (Market Cap - Realized Cap)
  • MVRV — Ratio of market value to realized value across all holders
  • Realized Cap — Sum of LTH + STH realized cap
  • Market Cap — Total market cap