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MVRV

Ratio of market value to realized value across all holders

PropertyValue
CategoryValuation Metrics
UnitDimensionless
Resolution1d
AssetsBTC
TierBasic
API EndpointGET /v1/holder/valuation
Fieldmvrv

Overview​

MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) measures the ratio between Bitcoin's current market capitalization and its realized capitalization across all holders (both Long-Term and Short-Term). It is the aggregate version of the cohort-specific LTH MVRV and STH MVRV metrics.

MVRV is one of the most widely used on-chain valuation tools, providing a high-level view of whether the market as a whole is in profit or loss relative to the aggregate cost basis.

Formula​

MVRV=Market CapRealized Cap\text{MVRV} = \frac{\text{Market Cap}}{\text{Realized Cap}}

Where:

  • Market Cap = Current BTC price x circulating supply
  • Realized Cap = Sum of each UTXO valued at its last-moved price (using logistic weighting)

Interpretation​

  • MVRV > 1: The average holder is in profit. Higher values indicate greater aggregate unrealized gains and increasing sell pressure probability.
  • MVRV < 1: The average holder is in loss. Historically rare and associated with bear market capitulation and generational accumulation zones.
  • MVRV > 3.5: Historically signals extreme overvaluation and has preceded major cycle tops.
  • MVRV = 1: Equilibrium zone where aggregate market value equals aggregate cost basis — often a pivotal support/resistance level.

Use Cases​

  • Macro cycle positioning: MVRV extremes have reliably marked Bitcoin cycle tops and bottoms across all historical cycles.
  • Risk-reward assessment: Rising MVRV compresses future expected returns while expanding drawdown risk.
  • Comparative analysis: Divergence between aggregate MVRV and cohort-specific MVRV (LTH/STH) reveals which holder group is driving market dynamics.
  • Mean reversion signals: MVRV tends to revert to historical mean, making sustained extremes actionable.

API Usage​

curl -H "Authorization: Bearer YOUR_API_KEY" \
  "https://api.blocklens.co/v1/holder/valuation?start_date=2024-01-01&end_date=2024-12-31&limit=365"