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Market Cap / Thermo Cap Ratio

Market valuation relative to cumulative miner cost basis — high values suggest overvaluation vs production cost, low values suggest undervaluation

PropertyValue
CategoryValuation Metrics
UnitDimensionless
Resolution1d
AssetsBTC
TierBasic
API EndpointGET /v1/holder/valuation
Fieldmc_tc_ratio

Overview​

Market Cap / Thermo Cap Ratio compares Bitcoin's current market valuation to the cumulative revenue miners received for producing the entire supply. It measures how much the market values Bitcoin relative to its total production cost.

A higher ratio means the market assigns significantly more value than what was spent to produce Bitcoin, while a lower ratio suggests market valuation is closer to historical mining costs.

Formula​

MC/TC Ratio=Market CapThermo Cap\text{MC/TC Ratio} = \frac{\text{Market Cap}}{\text{Thermo Cap}}

Where:

  • Market Cap=Price×Circulating Supply\text{Market Cap} = \text{Price} \times \text{Circulating Supply}
  • Thermo Cap=∑(Daily Issuance×Price at Issuance)\text{Thermo Cap} = \sum (\text{Daily Issuance} \times \text{Price at Issuance})

Interpretation​

  • High ratio (\gt 20): Market values Bitcoin far above cumulative production cost — potentially overheated
  • Low ratio (\lt 8): Market valuation is relatively close to miner cost basis — potential accumulation zone
  • Historically oscillates between ~5 at bear market bottoms and ~30+ at cycle peaks

Use Cases​

  • Cycle top/bottom identification: Extreme highs correlate with market tops, extreme lows with bottoms
  • Valuation framework: Provides a production-cost-based lens for Bitcoin valuation
  • Comparison with MVRV: While MVRV uses realized cap (last-moved cost), MC/TC uses production cost — different economic signals
  • Long-term trend: Secular decline as Thermo Cap grows while halvings reduce new issuance impact

API Usage​

curl -H "Authorization: Bearer YOUR_API_KEY" \
  "https://api.blocklens.co/v1/holder/valuation?start_date=2024-01-01&end_date=2024-12-31&limit=365"
  • Thermo Cap — Cumulative miner revenue at time of issuance — measures the total cost basis of all mined Bitcoin valued at the price on their creation date
  • MVRV — Ratio of market value to realized value across all holders
  • Market Cap — Total market cap
  • Realized Cap — Sum of LTH + STH realized cap