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Balanced Price

Realized Price minus Transferred Price — marks full capitulation and accumulation bottoms

PropertyValue
CategoryValuation Metrics
UnitUSD
Resolution1d
AssetsBTC
TierBasic
API EndpointGET /v1/holder/valuation
Fieldbalanced_price

Overview​

Balanced Price is a composite on-chain valuation metric proposed by David Puell in collaboration with Willy Woo as part of their "Experiments on Cumulative Destruction" research. It is calculated by subtracting Transferred Price from Realized Price, yielding a price level that represents the difference between what the market collectively paid for its coins and what was spent (destruction-weighted).

Conceptually, Balanced Price denotes the level at which, during bear markets, a "full detox" has been achieved — where market price matches the net cost basis after accounting for spending behavior. When spot price falls below Balanced Price, it signals that the market has entered deep capitulation territory, historically marking the most extreme buying opportunities.

Balanced Price is closely related to Delta Price (Realized Cap minus Average Cap, divided by supply). David Puell notes that Delta Price serves as a technical analysis proxy of Balanced Price: Delta Price tends to catch exact wicks at cycle bottoms, while Balanced Price defines the broader accumulation zone before the next bull run.

For further reading, see Willy Woo and David Puell: Experiments on Cumulative Destruction

Formula​

Balanced Price=Realized Price−Transferred Price\text{Balanced Price} = \text{Realized Price} - \text{Transferred Price}

Where:

  • Realized Price = Realized Cap / Circulating Supply — the average price at which all currently held BTC last moved on-chain (aggregate cost basis)
  • Transferred Price = Sum(CDD x Price) / (Market Age x Supply) — the life-to-date destruction-weighted average price (aggregate spending behavior)
  • The difference isolates the net cost basis after subtracting the spending-behavior component

Interpretation​

  • Spot price above Balanced Price (normal state): The market trades above its net cost basis — healthy market conditions
  • Spot price approaches Balanced Price: The speculative premium has been almost entirely eliminated — late-stage bear market
  • Spot price below Balanced Price (rare, extreme): Full capitulation achieved. Historically, these periods have been brief and have marked absolute generational buying opportunities
  • Balanced Price vs Delta Price: Both track cycle bottoms. Delta Price catches the exact wicks; Balanced Price defines the accumulation zone. When both converge with spot price, the signal is strongest
  • Rising Balanced Price: As both Realized Price and Transferred Price grow over time, Balanced Price tends to rise, creating a higher floor for each successive cycle

Use Cases​

  • Capitulation detection: When spot price falls below Balanced Price, it signals that the market has fully detoxed from speculative excess — maximum fear, minimum risk
  • Accumulation zone mapping: The zone between Balanced Price and Realized Price defines the optimal long-term accumulation range during bear markets
  • Composite bottom model: Combine Balanced Price with Delta Price, Transferred Price, and CVDD to build a multi-layered bottom-detection framework
  • Fair value reference: Balanced Price represents a fundamentals-derived fair value floor that accounts for both buying and spending behavior across Bitcoin's entire history

API Usage​

curl -H "Authorization: Bearer YOUR_API_KEY" \
  "https://api.blocklens.co/v1/holder/valuation?start_date=2024-01-01&end_date=2024-12-31&limit=365"
  • Realized Price — Realized Cap / Circulating Supply
  • Transferred Price — Life-to-date average price weighted by coin-day destruction — a spending-behavior-derived price floor
  • Delta Price — Delta Cap per BTC — an on-chain derived price floor that has historically marked absolute Bitcoin cycle bottoms
  • Realized Cap — Sum of LTH + STH realized cap