Transferred Price

Life-to-date average price weighted by coin-day destruction — a spending-behavior-derived price floor

Property	Value
Category	Coin Days
Unit	USD
Resolution	1d
Assets	BTC
Tier	Basic
API Endpoint	GET /v1/coindays
Field	transferred_price

Overview

Transferred Price was proposed by David Puell (in collaboration with Willy Woo) as part of their "Experiments on Cumulative Destruction" research. It translates the concept of coin-day destruction into the price domain by computing the life-to-date moving average of destruction-weighted market value per coin.

Transferred Price can be interpreted as the average price at which economic value has been transferred through the Bitcoin network, weighted by the age of coins involved. It represents the spending-behavior component of Bitcoin's valuation — what was spent, as opposed to Realized Price which represents what was paid.

When subtracted from Realized Price, the result is Balanced Price — a powerful cycle-bottom indicator that signals when market price has fully detoxed from speculative excess.

For further reading, see Willy Woo's original research: Experiments on Cumulative Destruction

Formula

$$\text{Transferred Price}_T = \frac{\sum_{t=0}^{T} \text{CDD}_t \times P_t}{(T - T_0) \times S_T}$$

Where:

• $\text{CDD}_t$ is Coin Days Destroyed on day $t$
• $P_t$ is the BTC price on day $t$
• $T - T_0$ is the market age in days (days since genesis, January 3, 2009)
• $S_T$ is the circulating supply on day $T$

Interpretation

• Transferred Price as a price floor: Historically, Transferred Price has closely tracked absolute market cycle bottoms, providing a rising lower bound during bear markets
• Rising Transferred Price indicates growing cumulative value destruction, typically during bull markets when high-value old coins change hands at high prices
• Transferred Price vs Realized Price: Realized Price = average price paid (buy side); Transferred Price = average destruction-weighted price (sell side). The difference = Balanced Price
• Similar in shape to Realized Price: Both metrics incorporate HODL time in their calculation, giving them structural resemblance, but Transferred Price tends to lag below Realized Price

Use Cases

• Bear market floor detection: Transferred Price provides a consistently rising lower bound that has historically caught cycle bottoms
• Balanced Price derivation: Balanced Price = Realized Price − Transferred Price. When market price falls below Balanced Price, it signals full capitulation and maximum buying opportunity
• Spending behavior analysis: Transferred Price reflects the aggregate history of when and at what price old coins were spent, complementing the purchase-focused Realized Price
• Multi-model price framework: Combine with Delta Price, Realized Price, and CVDD to build a comprehensive hierarchy of on-chain derived price floors and ceilings

API Usage

curl -H "Authorization: Bearer YOUR_API_KEY" \
  "https://api.blocklens.co/v1/coindays?start_date=2024-01-01&end_date=2024-12-31&limit=365"

Related Metrics

• Coin Days Destroyed — Sum of coin age × amount for all spent UTXOs per day — a fundamental measure of on-chain economic activity
• Realized Price — Realized Cap / Circulating Supply
• Delta Price — Delta Cap per BTC — an on-chain derived price floor that has historically marked absolute Bitcoin cycle bottoms
• Coin Days Accumulated — Running total of all coin-days ever created minus all coin-days ever destroyed — the total stored economic energy in the network