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Delta Price

Delta Cap per BTC — an on-chain derived price floor that has historically marked absolute Bitcoin cycle bottoms

PropertyValue
CategoryValuation Metrics
UnitUSD
Resolution1d
AssetsBTC
TierBasic
API EndpointGET /v1/holder/valuation
Fielddelta_price

Overview​

Delta Price is derived by dividing Delta Cap by the circulating supply of Bitcoin, converting the aggregate valuation metric into a per-coin price level directly comparable to spot price. Delta Price represents the on-chain cost-basis-derived price floor — the price at which, historically, Bitcoin has found its absolute market cycle bottoms.

Originally described by David Puell alongside Delta Cap, Delta Price inherits the same foundational insight: it captures the difference between the aggregate investor cost basis (Realized Cap) and the long-term mean market valuation (Average Cap), expressed per bitcoin. When spot price descends to Delta Price, it signals extreme undervaluation relative to both historical norms and holder cost bases.

For further reading, see David Puell original research: Bitcoin Delta Capitalization

Formula​

Delta Price=Delta CapCirculating Supply=Realized Cap−Average CapCirculating Supply\text{Delta Price} = \frac{\text{Delta Cap}}{\text{Circulating Supply}} = \frac{\text{Realized Cap} - \text{Average Cap}}{\text{Circulating Supply}}

Where:

  • Realized Cap is the sum of all Bitcoin valued at the price they last moved on-chain
  • Average Cap is the life-to-date cumulative moving average of Market Cap
  • Circulating Supply is the total BTC in circulation at the given date
  • The result is denominated in USD per BTC, directly comparable to spot price

Interpretation​

  • Delta Price as a cycle bottom indicator: Historically, Bitcoin spot price has touched or approached Delta Price at absolute market cycle lows — these events have represented generational buying opportunities
  • Rising Delta Price reflects growing on-chain accumulation (rising Realized Cap) outpacing the growth of the long-term market mean (Average Cap)
  • Delta Price vs spot price spread: A large spread between current price and Delta Price suggests the market is far from a bottom; convergence signals increasing downside risk has been absorbed
  • Overlay with BTC Price: Plotting Delta Price on the same axis as spot price makes bottom-detection intuitive — when the two lines converge or cross, historical bottoms have occurred
  • Lagging indicator: Because both Realized Cap and Average Cap are slow-moving, Delta Price changes gradually and is not subject to short-term manipulation or sentiment swings

Use Cases​

  • Absolute cycle bottom identification: Delta Price is one of the few on-chain price-level metrics with a historical track record of marking generational buying zones
  • Risk-adjusted position sizing: The ratio of spot price to Delta Price provides a normalized measure of distance from a potential bottom — useful for scaling into positions during bear markets
  • Composite valuation overlay: Plot Delta Price alongside Realized Price, Average Cap price, and Thermo Cap price to build a complete hierarchy of on-chain derived price floors
  • Long-term investor framework: For investors with multi-year horizons, proximity to Delta Price has historically indicated optimal accumulation windows with asymmetric risk/reward

API Usage​

curl -H "Authorization: Bearer YOUR_API_KEY" \
  "https://api.blocklens.co/v1/holder/valuation?start_date=2024-01-01&end_date=2024-12-31&limit=365"
  • Delta Cap — Realized Cap minus Average Cap — a valuation floor model that historically marks Bitcoin absolute market cycle bottoms
  • Realized Cap — Sum of LTH + STH realized cap
  • Average Cap — Life-to-date cumulative moving average of Market Cap — smooths out short-term volatility to reveal the long-term fair value trajectory of Bitcoin's network
  • Realized Price — Realized Cap / Circulating Supply