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Mayer Multiple

Ratio of Bitcoin price to its 200-day simple moving average (SMA-200), indicating whether BTC is overvalued or undervalued relative to its long-term trend

PropertyValue
CategoryValuation Metrics
UnitNone
Resolution1d
AssetsBTC
TierBasic
API EndpointGET /v1/holder/valuation
Fieldmayer_multiple

Overview​

The Mayer Multiple is a widely recognized valuation indicator that compares Bitcoin's current price to its 200-day simple moving average (SMA-200). Originally popularized by investor Trace Mayer, this ratio provides a straightforward measure of whether Bitcoin is trading above or below its long-term price trend. A Mayer Multiple above 1.0 means the price is above the 200-day average, while a value below 1.0 indicates the price has fallen beneath this key technical level.

The 200-day moving average is one of the most commonly referenced benchmarks in traditional finance and crypto markets alike. It smooths out short-term volatility and represents the consensus price over roughly 6.5 months of trading. By expressing the current price as a ratio to this average, the Mayer Multiple strips away the absolute dollar value and instead focuses on relative positioning — making it useful for comparing conditions across different market cycles regardless of the prevailing price level.

The Mayer Multiple complements other Blocklens valuation metrics such as STH MVRV and LTH MVRV, which measure market value against realized value for short-term and long-term holder cohorts respectively. While MVRV ratios incorporate on-chain cost basis data, the Mayer Multiple relies purely on price history, making it a simpler but broadly accessible signal. It also pairs naturally with the Blocklens Mayer metric, which extends the traditional Mayer Multiple with additional analytical layers, and raw price data for contextual reference.

Formula​

Mayer Multiple=PtSMA(200)\text{Mayer Multiple} = \frac{P_t}{\text{SMA}(200)}

where the 200-day simple moving average is defined as:

SMA(200)=1200∑i=0199Pt−i\text{SMA}(200) = \frac{1}{200} \sum_{i=0}^{199} P_{t-i}
  • P_t — Bitcoin's closing price on the current day
  • SMA(200) — The simple moving average of Bitcoin's closing price over the preceding 200 days
  • The sum iterates over the most recent 200 daily closing prices, giving equal weight to each day

Interpretation​

  • Below 0.8 — Bitcoin is trading significantly below its 200-day average, indicating deep undervaluation. Historically, these levels have coincided with bear market capitulation phases and have presented strong long-term accumulation opportunities.
  • 0.8 – 1.0 — Price is below the 200-day moving average but not at extreme lows. This range often appears during late-stage corrections or early recovery periods, suggesting caution but improving conditions.
  • 1.0 – 1.5 — Bitcoin is above its long-term trend but within a moderate range. This is the most common territory during healthy uptrends and consolidation phases, generally considered a neutral-to-bullish zone.
  • 1.5 – 2.4 — Price is well above the 200-day average, signaling strong bullish momentum. While not necessarily a sell signal, historically a Mayer Multiple above 2.4 has occurred less than 5% of the time, making values approaching this threshold a warning of potential overextension.
  • Above 2.4 — Historically rare territory indicating extreme overvaluation relative to the long-term trend. Prior cycle tops have typically featured Mayer Multiple readings in this range or higher, suggesting elevated risk of a significant correction.

Use Cases​

  • Cycle positioning — Use the Mayer Multiple to quickly assess where Bitcoin sits relative to its long-term trend. Values persistently above 1.0 confirm a macro uptrend, while sustained readings below 1.0 suggest a bear market environment.
  • Accumulation timing — Long-term investors can use readings below 0.8 as a signal to dollar-cost average more aggressively, as these levels have historically preceded strong recoveries over subsequent months.
  • Risk management — Traders and portfolio managers can use elevated Mayer Multiple readings (above 2.0) as a trigger to reduce position sizes, take profits, or tighten stop-losses to protect against mean reversion.
  • Cross-validation with on-chain metrics — Compare the Mayer Multiple with STH MVRV and LTH MVRV to distinguish between purely price-driven overextension and on-chain-confirmed overvaluation. When both the Mayer Multiple and MVRV ratios are elevated simultaneously, the signal is considerably stronger.
  • Historical benchmarking — Because the Mayer Multiple is a ratio rather than an absolute value, it allows direct comparison of market conditions across different cycles. A reading of 2.0 in 2017 carries the same interpretive weight as 2.0 in 2025, making it a durable analytical tool for long-term market study.

API Usage​

curl -H "Authorization: Bearer YOUR_API_KEY" \
  "https://api.blocklens.co/v1/holder/valuation?start_date=2024-01-01&end_date=2024-12-31&limit=365"
  • Price — BTC market price
  • STH MVRV — STH profit ratio
  • LTH MVRV — LTH profit ratio
  • Blocklens-Mayer — Ratio of Bitcoin price to Short-Term Holder (STH) Realized Price — an on-chain alternative to the traditional Mayer Multiple that uses cost basis instead of SMA-200