Blocklens-Mayer

Ratio of Bitcoin price to Short-Term Holder (STH) Realized Price — an on-chain alternative to the traditional Mayer Multiple that uses cost basis instead of SMA-200

Property	Value
Category	Valuation Metrics
Unit	None
Resolution	1d
Assets	BTC
Tier	Basic
API Endpoint	GET /v1/holder/valuation
Field	blocklens_mayer

Overview

Blocklens-Mayer is a valuation metric that measures how far the current Bitcoin price has deviated from the average cost basis of short-term holders (STH). It is calculated as the ratio of the current Bitcoin price to the STH Realized Price — the average acquisition cost of all coins that have moved within the last 155 days. This makes it a purely on-chain alternative to the traditional Mayer Multiple, which relies on the 200-day simple moving average (SMA-200) as its denominator.

The key insight behind Blocklens-Mayer is that the STH Realized Price represents the actual aggregate cost basis of recent market participants, rather than an arbitrary technical indicator. While the SMA-200 smooths price action over a fixed window, the STH Realized Price reflects real capital deployed by newer holders. This distinction is critical during periods of rapid accumulation or distribution, where the cost basis of active market participants can diverge significantly from the SMA-200. Blocklens-Mayer captures this divergence and provides a more behaviorally grounded measure of market overextension or undervaluation.

Blocklens-Mayer is closely related to several other Blocklens metrics. It shares its numerator (spot price) with the traditional Mayer Multiple (mayer_multiple) but replaces the SMA-200 denominator with on-chain data. It is conceptually similar to STH MVRV (sth_mvrv), which compares the market value of short-term holder supply to its realized value — Blocklens-Mayer can be understood as a per-coin, price-normalized version of that same relationship. Monitoring it alongside sth_realized_price and price provides a complete picture of short-term holder profitability and market structure.

Formula

$$\text{Blocklens-Mayer} = \frac{\text{Price}}{\text{STH Realized Price}}$$

• Price — the current spot price of Bitcoin (USD), typically sourced from a volume-weighted composite index.
• STH Realized Price — the average cost basis (in USD) of all unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs) that have been moved within the last 155 days. This is computed by summing the USD value of each UTXO at the time it was created, then dividing by the total number of BTC in the short-term holder cohort.
• 155 days — the standard threshold separating short-term holders from long-term holders in on-chain analysis. Coins held for fewer than 155 days are classified as short-term holder supply.

Interpretation

• Blocklens-Mayer ≈ 1.0 — Bitcoin is trading near the aggregate cost basis of short-term holders. This is an equilibrium zone where recent buyers are roughly at breakeven, often serving as a support/resistance pivot during trending markets.
• Blocklens-Mayer > 1.0 and rising — Short-term holders are in profit. Mild readings (1.0–1.4) indicate a healthy uptrend with new capital flowing in at lower prices. As the ratio rises, it signals increasing unrealized gains among recent participants, which historically correlates with growing sell-side pressure.
• Blocklens-Mayer > 1.5 — Short-term holders are sitting on significant unrealized profits. Historically, sustained readings above this level have preceded local tops or corrections, as the incentive to take profits becomes strong. Extreme readings (>2.0) have marked euphoric phases of bull markets.
• Blocklens-Mayer < 1.0 — Short-term holders are underwater on average. This condition often coincides with capitulation events and bear market bottoms. A sustained reading below 1.0 indicates that recent market entrants are experiencing losses, which can accelerate selling or, paradoxically, signal accumulation zones for longer-term investors.
• Blocklens-Mayer < 0.8 — Deep undervaluation relative to short-term holder cost basis. Historically, these levels have represented high-conviction buying opportunities, as they indicate widespread capitulation among the most recent cohort of buyers.

Use Cases

• Cycle top and bottom identification — Use Blocklens-Mayer to gauge macro cycle positioning. Extreme readings above 1.5–2.0 have historically aligned with cycle tops, while sustained readings below 0.8–1.0 have marked generational buying opportunities near cycle bottoms.
• On-chain alternative to Mayer Multiple — Replace the SMA-200-based Mayer Multiple with Blocklens-Mayer for a fundamentally grounded valuation signal. Because the STH Realized Price reflects actual capital flows rather than lagging price averages, it responds more accurately to shifts in market structure such as rapid accumulation phases or exchange-driven redistribution.
• Short-term holder sentiment gauge — Monitor Blocklens-Mayer as a real-time proxy for the profitability and conviction of recent market entrants. When the metric is above 1.0 and rising, new participants are emboldened; when it drops below 1.0, fear and capitulation tend to dominate short-term holder behavior.
• Risk management and position sizing — Incorporate Blocklens-Mayer into a risk framework alongside STH MVRV and the traditional Mayer Multiple. Elevated readings across all three metrics suggest a high-risk environment for new long positions, while convergence at depressed levels signals reduced downside risk and favorable risk/reward for accumulation.
• Divergence analysis with Mayer Multiple — Compare Blocklens-Mayer against the traditional Mayer Multiple to detect structural shifts. When the two metrics diverge — for example, Blocklens-Mayer rising while the Mayer Multiple stays flat — it indicates that short-term holder cost basis is moving independently of the SMA-200, often a sign of significant on-chain redistribution that pure price-based indicators miss.

API Usage

curl -H "Authorization: Bearer YOUR_API_KEY" \
  "https://api.blocklens.co/v1/holder/valuation?start_date=2024-01-01&end_date=2024-12-31&limit=365"

Related Metrics

• STH Realized Price — STH cost basis
• Mayer Multiple — Ratio of Bitcoin price to its 200-day simple moving average (SMA-200), indicating whether BTC is overvalued or undervalued relative to its long-term trend
• STH MVRV — STH profit ratio
• Price — BTC market price