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Unrealized P/L

Aggregate unrealized profit/loss across all holders (Market Cap - Realized Cap)

PropertyValue
CategoryProfit & Loss
UnitUSD
Resolution1d
AssetsBTC
TierBasic
API EndpointGET /v1/holder/valuation
Fieldunrealized_pl

Overview​

Unrealized P/L measures the total unrealized profit or loss of all Bitcoin holders in aggregate. It represents the difference between current market valuation and the aggregate cost basis, quantifying how much theoretical profit (or loss) exists in the network if all holders were to sell at the current price.

This is the aggregate version combining both LTH Unrealized P/L and STH Unrealized P/L.

Formula​

Unrealized P/L=Market Cap−Realized Cap\text{Unrealized P/L} = \text{Market Cap} - \text{Realized Cap}

Where:

  • Market Cap = Current BTC price x circulating supply
  • Realized Cap = Sum of each UTXO valued at its last-moved price (using logistic weighting)

Interpretation​

  • Unrealized P/L > 0: The network as a whole is in profit. Rising values indicate growing paper gains and increasing incentive to take profit.
  • Unrealized P/L < 0: The network is in aggregate loss. Historically marks deep bear markets and capitulation events.
  • Peaks: Extreme positive values have preceded distribution phases and cycle tops.
  • Troughs: Deeply negative values have marked generational buying opportunities.

Use Cases​

  • Market sentiment gauge: Unrealized P/L quantifies the aggregate emotional state of the market — euphoria vs. despair.
  • Distribution risk: Rising unrealized profits increase the probability of sell-side pressure as holders lock in gains.
  • Accumulation signals: Negative unrealized P/L indicates the market has capitulated, historically an optimal accumulation window.
  • Cohort comparison: Comparing aggregate Unrealized P/L against LTH and STH components reveals which cohort is driving the overall position.

API Usage​

curl -H "Authorization: Bearer YOUR_API_KEY" \
  "https://api.blocklens.co/v1/holder/valuation?start_date=2024-01-01&end_date=2024-12-31&limit=365"