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Cost Basis Distribution

Heatmap of Bitcoin supply distribution by cost basis price over time

PropertyValue
CategorySupply Analysis
UnitBTC
Resolution1d
AssetsBTC
TierEnterprise
API EndpointGET /v1/heatmap/cost-basis-distribution
Fieldsupply

Overview​

Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) is a heatmap that shows how Bitcoin's total circulating supply is distributed across different acquisition price levels over time. Each cell represents the amount of BTC whose last on-chain movement occurred when the price was within a specific price bin on a specific date — effectively visualizing the aggregate unrealized profit/loss landscape of all Bitcoin holders.

This is one of the most powerful on-chain analytics tools available, revealing where large amounts of BTC were accumulated, highlighting historical support and resistance zones derived directly from on-chain behavior, and exposing the UTXO realized price distribution — a supply-weighted map of investor cost bases.

How It Works​

The heatmap uses 100 logarithmic price bins per time period, with bin boundaries dynamically computed from the actual price range of each period. This means each period (All Time, 10Y, 5Y, 3Y, 1Y, 6M, 3M, 1M, 1W) gets its own optimized bin resolution — shorter periods have finer granularity around recent price action, while the All Time view covers the full historical range.

Supported periods: All, 10Y, 5Y, 3Y, 1Y, 6M, 3M, 1M, 1W

Bin generation formula:

bin_edgei=Pmin⁡⋅(Pmax⁡Pmin⁡)iN−1,i=0,1,…,N−1\text{bin\_edge}_i = P_{\min} \cdot \left(\frac{P_{\max}}{P_{\min}}\right)^{\frac{i}{N-1}}, \quad i = 0, 1, \ldots, N-1

Where:

  • Pmin⁡P_{\min} and Pmax⁡P_{\max} are the minimum and maximum prices observed within the selected period
  • N=100N = 100 is the number of bins
  • Bin boundaries are computed geometrically (equal ratio between adjacent edges on a log scale)
  • An additional bin at index 0 captures supply below Pmin⁡P_{\min}, and the last bin captures supply above Pmax⁡P_{\max}

The color intensity at each cell represents the amount of BTC held in that price bin on that date — brighter/warmer colors indicate greater supply concentration.

Interpretation​

  • Bright horizontal bands indicate price levels where large amounts of BTC were acquired and are still held — these act as on-chain support or resistance zones
  • The bright diagonal line tracking current price represents recently moved coins continuously resetting their cost basis at market price
  • Dense accumulation zones below current price represent potential support levels where holders are in profit and less likely to sell at a loss
  • Dense zones above current price represent overhead supply — potential resistance as holders in loss may sell to break even
  • Dark areas indicate price levels with little supply — zones of low liquidity and potentially fast price movement
  • Switching between periods (e.g. 1Y vs All) zooms in on recent accumulation with higher bin resolution, revealing finer structure invisible in the full-history view

Use Cases​

  • Support and resistance mapping: Identify price levels where large on-chain cost basis concentrations exist — these levels often correlate with significant price reactions
  • Market cycle analysis: Track how supply redistributes from long-term holders to new buyers during bull markets, and back during bear market capitulations
  • Capitulation detection: Large supply moving from profitable to loss zones (bright bands dropping below current price) signals potential market bottoms
  • Accumulation pattern identification: Persistent bright horizontal bands forming over time indicate price zones where long-term holders are building positions
  • Period-based zoom: Use shorter periods (1M, 3M) to analyze recent micro-structure, and longer periods (5Y, All) to understand macro supply distribution

API Usage​

curl -H "Authorization: Bearer YOUR_API_KEY" \
  "https://api.blocklens.co/v1/heatmap/cost-basis-distribution?start_date=2024-01-01&end_date=2024-12-31&limit=365"