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LTH Supply

Long-term holder supply

PropertyValue
CategorySupply Analysis
UnitBTC
Resolution1d
AssetsBTC
TierBasic
API EndpointGET /v1/holder/supply
Fieldlth_supply

Overview​

LTH Supply tracks the total amount of Bitcoin held by Long-Term Holders — entities whose coins have a high probability of remaining unspent based on their age.

Methodology​

Rather than using a sharp age cutoff, blocklens applies a logistic weighting function to smoothly transition coins between STH and LTH cohorts:

WLTH(age)=11+e−0.1×(age−155)W_{LTH}(age) = \frac{1}{1 + e^{-0.1 \times (age - 155)}}

  • At 155 days, a coin has equal weight (0.5) in both cohorts.
  • Below 100 days, the LTH weight is effectively 0.
  • Above 210 days, the LTH weight is effectively 1.

Each UTXO contributes to LTH Supply proportionally: amount × W_LTH(age). This avoids the artifacts caused by a hard binary threshold.

For full methodology details, see On-Chain Concepts.

Interpretation​

  • Rising LTH Supply: Indicates accumulation — holders are choosing to hold rather than sell, signaling conviction.
  • Falling LTH Supply: Indicates distribution — long-term holders are spending/selling, often seen near market tops.

Use Cases​

  • Cycle positioning: LTH supply peaks near market bottoms and troughs near market tops.
  • Accumulation detection: Identify phases where smart money is accumulating.
  • Supply shock analysis: Decreasing liquid supply (rising LTH) can precede parabolic price moves.

API Usage​

curl -H "Authorization: Bearer YOUR_API_KEY" \
  "https://api.blocklens.co/v1/holder/supply?start_date=2024-01-01&end_date=2024-12-31&limit=365"