Realized Volatility (1M)

Annualized standard deviation of daily log-returns over the past 30 days — the industry-standard short-term BTC volatility benchmark

Property	Value
Category	Market Data
Unit	Dimensionless
Resolution	1d
Assets	BTC
Tier	Basic
API Endpoint	GET /v1/prices
Field	realized_vol_1m

Overview

Realized Volatility (1M) measures Bitcoin's annualized price volatility over a trailing 30-day rolling window. This is the most widely referenced short-term volatility measure in crypto markets — analogous to the VIX's 30-day focus in equity markets — and serves as the primary benchmark for options pricing, risk management, and market commentary.

The 30-day window smooths out individual daily noise while remaining responsive enough to capture changes in volatility regime within a reasonable timeframe. When analysts say "BTC vol is 70%", they almost always mean the 1M realized vol.

All values are annualized using the $\sqrt{365}$ factor, making them comparable to implied volatility quotes from options markets and to volatility figures published for other asset classes.

Formula

$$\sigma_{1M} = \sqrt{365} \times \sqrt{ \frac{1}{N-1} \sum_{i=1}^{N} \left( r_i - \bar{r} \right)^2 }$$

where:

• $r_i = \ln\!\left(\frac{P_i}{P_{i-1}}\right)$ — daily log-return
• $\bar{r}$ — mean of the $N$ log-returns in the window
• $N = 30$ — rolling window size
• The $\sqrt{365}$ factor annualizes the daily standard deviation
• Result is expressed as a percentage

Interpretation

• Low (< 25%): Historically rare for Bitcoin. Usually seen in prolonged consolidation phases or deep accumulation zones.
• Moderate (25–60%): Bitcoin's "normal" range during most market cycles. Trending markets or structured corrections.
• High (60–90%): Active, high-momentum markets. Bull market parabolic phases or sharp bear market relief rallies.
• Extreme (> 90%): Crisis conditions or euphoric blowoff tops. Historically coincides with major liquidation cascades or macro shocks.

The 1M vol is the primary reference for comparing BTC's volatility across cycles. In early cycles (2011–2013), values above 150% were common. Each subsequent cycle has seen progressively lower peak volatility, reflecting the market's maturing structure.

Use Cases

• Options pricing: Monthly BTC options (the most liquid expiry) derive fair value from 1M realized vol vs. implied vol. A realized/implied ratio below 1 suggests options are "expensive" (IV > RV).
• Cycle comparison: Plotting 1M vol across multiple BTC cycles reveals declining peak volatility — a structural trend reflecting institutional adoption and larger market cap.
• Volatility risk premium: The spread between 1M implied and 1M realized vol represents the premium options sellers collect for bearing gamma risk.
• Risk-adjusted returns: Sharpe and Sortino ratios for BTC portfolios are typically computed using annualized 1M realized vol as the denominator.

API Usage

curl -H "Authorization: Bearer YOUR_API_KEY" \
  "https://api.blocklens.co/v1/prices?start_date=2024-01-01&end_date=2024-12-31&limit=365"

Related Metrics

• Realized Volatility (1W) — Annualized standard deviation of daily log-returns over the past 7 days — a real-time gauge of short-term BTC price turbulence
• Realized Volatility (2W) — Annualized standard deviation of daily log-returns over the past 14 days — bridges instant noise and short-term trend volatility
• Realized Volatility (3M) — Annualized standard deviation of daily log-returns over the past 90 days — tracks medium-term volatility across a full market phase
• Realized Volatility (6M) — Annualized standard deviation of daily log-returns over the past 180 days — a slow-moving anchor for long-term volatility trend analysis
• Realized Volatility (1Y) — Annualized standard deviation of daily log-returns over a trailing 365-day window — measures how volatile BTC price has been over the past year
• Price — BTC market price