Realized Volatility (3M)

Annualized standard deviation of daily log-returns over the past 90 days — tracks medium-term volatility across a full market phase

Property	Value
Category	Market Data
Unit	Dimensionless
Resolution	1d
Assets	BTC
Tier	Basic
API Endpoint	GET /v1/prices
Field	realized_vol_3m

Overview

Realized Volatility (3M) measures Bitcoin's annualized price volatility over a trailing 90-day rolling window. At three months, this metric captures an entire market phase — a full bull leg, a bear correction, or a prolonged consolidation — and is far less sensitive to individual spikes than the shorter windows.

The 3M vol is particularly valuable for identifying structural volatility regimes: whether the market is entering a high-energy trending phase or compressing into a coiled spring. Institutional investors and macro traders who hold positions for weeks to months typically use 3M realized vol for position sizing and portfolio risk budgets.

All values are annualized by multiplying the daily standard deviation by $\sqrt{365}$ for cross-asset comparability.

Formula

$$\sigma_{3M} = \sqrt{365} \times \sqrt{ \frac{1}{N-1} \sum_{i=1}^{N} \left( r_i - \bar{r} \right)^2 }$$

where:

• $r_i = \ln\!\left(\frac{P_i}{P_{i-1}}\right)$ — daily log-return
• $\bar{r}$ — mean of the $N$ log-returns in the window
• $N = 90$ — rolling window size
• The $\sqrt{365}$ factor annualizes the daily standard deviation
• Result is expressed as a percentage

Interpretation

• Low (< 25%): A historically compressed volatility environment. The 2018–2019 accumulation and the late 2023 pre-halving consolidation both showed sub-25% 3M vol before major moves.
• Moderate (25–55%): Typical mid-cycle activity. Trending phases with manageable swings.
• High (55–85%): BTC is in a high-energy phase. Bull market acceleration or acute bear market stress.
• Extreme (> 85%): Historically rare at the 3M level; indicates a sustained multi-month crisis or a parabolic blowoff (e.g., early 2021, March 2020).

Because the 3M window covers an entire quarter, it changes slowly. Divergence between short-term (1W/2W) and 3M vol is particularly informative: a spike in 1W with a flat 3M means the recent shock was isolated; a rising 3M following a rising 1M suggests a new regime is firmly establishing itself.

Use Cases

• Regime classification: 3M vol is a reliable regime classifier. Low (< 30%) — accumulation/distribution. Medium (30–60%) — trending. High (> 60%) — crisis or euphoria.
• Quarterly options pricing: 3-month BTC options (used by institutions for hedging) are priced relative to 3M realized vol.
• Risk budget allocation: Portfolio managers allocating to BTC often cap risk contribution based on 3M annualized vol. A position sized for 50% vol might be halved when 3M vol doubles to 100%.
• Volatility term structure: Plotting 1M vs. 3M vol reveals the term structure: when 1M > 3M (inverted), the market is in short-term stress but medium-term is calmer. When 3M > 1M (normal), the recent past was wilder than the recent present.

API Usage

curl -H "Authorization: Bearer YOUR_API_KEY" \
  "https://api.blocklens.co/v1/prices?start_date=2024-01-01&end_date=2024-12-31&limit=365"

Related Metrics

• Realized Volatility (1W) — Annualized standard deviation of daily log-returns over the past 7 days — a real-time gauge of short-term BTC price turbulence
• Realized Volatility (1M) — Annualized standard deviation of daily log-returns over the past 30 days — the industry-standard short-term BTC volatility benchmark
• Realized Volatility (6M) — Annualized standard deviation of daily log-returns over the past 180 days — a slow-moving anchor for long-term volatility trend analysis
• Realized Volatility (1Y) — Annualized standard deviation of daily log-returns over a trailing 365-day window — measures how volatile BTC price has been over the past year
• Price — BTC market price
• Price Drawdown from ATH — Percentage decline of Bitcoin price from its all-time high — always 0% or negative, measuring how far price has fallen from its peak