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US Spot ETF Realized Price

US spot ETF average cost basis from Jan 2024

PropertyValue
CategoryETF Analytics
UnitUSD
Resolution1d
AssetsBTC
TierPro
API EndpointGET /v1/etf/aggregate
Fieldus_spot_realized_price

Overview​

US Spot ETF Realized Price measures the average acquisition price of Bitcoin held by US-listed spot ETFs, computed from the start of the US spot ETF era on January 10, 2024 — the day the SEC approved spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Unlike the global ETF Realized Price (which includes all ETFs from their inception), this metric treats all US ETF BTC holdings as starting fresh on January 10, 2024. On that date, the total US ETF BTC balance (including GBTC's pre-existing approximately 621,499 BTC from its years as a closed-end trust) is valued at the BTC price on January 10 (approximately $46,220). From January 11 onwards, daily net flows are valued at each day's BTC price and accumulated normally.

Why reset GBTC? Grayscale's GBTC has held real BTC since 2013 as a closed-end trust, accumulating holdings over many years at vastly different prices. Its historical cost basis reflects a completely different market structure — one without spot ETF competition, creation/redemption mechanisms, or the post-approval institutional landscape. By resetting all US ETF holdings to the SEC approval date price, this metric provides a clean baseline that reflects the cost basis of the US spot ETF cohort as a unified group from the moment they all began operating under the same regulatory framework.

Formula​

US Spot Realized Pricet=US Spot Cumulative Money FlowtUS BTC Holdingst\text{US Spot Realized Price}_{t} = \frac{\text{US Spot Cumulative Money Flow}_{t}}{\text{US BTC Holdings}_{t}}

where:

US Spot Cumulative Money Flowt=US BTC2024-01-10×$46,220+∑d=2024-01-11t(ΔUS BTCd×Priced)\text{US Spot Cumulative Money Flow}_{t} = \text{US BTC}_{2024\text{-}01\text{-}10} \times \$46{,}220 + \sum_{d=2024\text{-}01\text{-}11}^{t} (\Delta\text{US BTC}_{d} \times \text{Price}_{d})

  • US BTC2024-01-10\text{US BTC}_{2024\text{-}01\text{-}10}: total US ETF BTC on the SEC approval date (the "seed")
  • ΔUS BTCd\Delta\text{US BTC}_{d}: daily change in US ETF BTC holdings (net flow)
  • Priced\text{Price}_{d}: daily BTC price
  • Data is NULL for dates before January 10, 2024

Interpretation​

  • BTC Price > US Spot Realized Price: US spot ETF investors are collectively in profit. This reduces redemption risk and may encourage additional inflows.
  • BTC Price < US Spot Realized Price: US spot ETF investors are underwater. This is a critical stress level — institutional risk mandates may trigger accelerated redemptions.
  • Rising realized price: New capital is entering US ETFs at prices above the current average — investors are willing to buy at higher levels, a bullish signal.
  • Falling realized price: Net outflows or new inflows only at lower prices — bearish positioning.
  • Compare with global ETF Realized Price: Divergence between the two reveals whether US-specific dynamics (regulatory, macro) differ from the global ETF investor base.

Use Cases​

  • US institutional profitability: The most direct measure of whether American ETF investors are in profit or loss, starting from a clean baseline at the ETF era launch.
  • Redemption risk assessment: When BTC price approaches or falls below this level, expect increased redemption pressure from US ETFs.
  • Support/resistance level: The US Spot Realized Price acts as a dynamic support level, as institutional cost basis attracts buying interest.
  • Cycle analysis: Track how the US ETF cohort's cost basis evolves through market cycles, independent of GBTC's pre-ETF legacy.

API Usage​

curl -H "Authorization: Bearer YOUR_API_KEY" \
  "https://api.blocklens.co/v1/etf/aggregate?start_date=2024-01-01&end_date=2024-12-31&limit=365"