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ETF BTC Dominance

ETF share of circulating BTC supply

PropertyValue
CategoryETF Analytics
UnitDimensionless
Resolution1d
AssetsBTC
TierBasic
API EndpointGET /v1/etf/aggregate
Fieldbtc_dominance

Overview​

ETF BTC Dominance measures the proportion of Bitcoin's total circulating supply that is held within ETF products. As ETF adoption grows, an increasing share of all existing BTC becomes locked in regulated custody, reducing the freely tradeable supply. This metric quantifies that structural shift by dividing total ETF BTC holdings by the circulating supply.

This is a supply-side metric with significant implications for price dynamics. Bitcoin has a fixed supply schedule (~21M cap), and as more BTC is absorbed into long-term institutional custody through ETFs, the effective "free float" available for trading on exchanges shrinks.

Formula​

ETF BTC Dominance=Total BTC in ETFsCirculating Supply\text{ETF BTC Dominance} = \frac{\text{Total BTC in ETFs}}{\text{Circulating Supply}}

Circulating supply is sourced from Blocklens's on-chain UTXO-based computation (daily_holder_supply). The result is a decimal ratio (e.g., 0.05 = 5%).

Interpretation​

  • Rising dominance means ETFs are absorbing BTC faster than new coins are being mined — shrinking the free float.
  • Dominance milestones (1%, 3%, 5% of supply) are psychologically significant and attract media attention, potentially creating reflexive inflow acceleration.
  • Compare with exchange balances: If both ETF dominance is rising and exchange balances are falling, it indicates a structural supply squeeze.
  • Ceiling effects: At some point, ETF absorption rate must slow as the diminishing free float drives up acquisition costs. This metric helps track how close we are to such scenarios.

Use Cases​

  • Supply squeeze detection: Rising ETF dominance + declining exchange balances = potential supply crisis.
  • Structural demand assessment: Track how much of Bitcoin's supply is locked in regulated institutional custody.
  • Cross-asset comparison: Compare BTC ETF dominance with gold ETF holdings as a % of above-ground gold supply.
  • Long-term adoption tracking: ETF dominance provides a clean measure of institutional penetration into the Bitcoin supply.

API Usage​

curl -H "Authorization: Bearer YOUR_API_KEY" \
  "https://api.blocklens.co/v1/etf/aggregate?start_date=2024-01-01&end_date=2024-12-31&limit=365"