10Y-2Y Yield Spread
10-year minus 2-year Treasury yield spread (%, recession indicator)
| Property | Value |
|---|---|
| Category | macro |
| Unit | % |
| Resolution | 1d |
| Assets | MACRO |
| Tier | Basic |
| API Endpoint | GET /v1/macro/spreads |
| Field | spread_10y_2y |
Overview
The spread between the 10-year and 2-year US Treasury yields (DGS10 - DGS2). A classic measure of the Treasury yield curve and one of the most reliable historical recession indicators in US macro data.
Interpretation
- Positive spread (steep curve): normal economic conditions, term premium for long bonds.
- Negative spread (inversion): historically precedes recessions by 12–18 months. Every US recession since 1955 was preceded by a 10Y-2Y inversion.
- Re-steepening from inversion (bull steepener): often coincides with or immediately precedes the recession itself as the Fed begins cutting.
Use Cases
- Identify late-cycle macro regimes when Bitcoin allocation decisions become more risk-sensitive.
- Combine with
macro_hy_credit_spreadto confirm credit-market stress alongside curve inversion. - Track the timing of yield-curve normalization to anticipate Fed policy pivots that historically drive risk-on flows into BTC.
API Usage
curl -H "Authorization: Bearer YOUR_API_KEY" \
"https://api.blocklens.co/v1/macro/spreads?start_date=2024-01-01&end_date=2024-12-31&limit=365"
Related Metrics
- 10-Year Treasury Yield — US 10-year Treasury constant maturity yield (%, daily)
- 2-Year Treasury Yield — US 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield (%, daily)
- 10Y-3M Yield Spread — 10-year minus 3-month Treasury yield spread (%, recession indicator)
- HY Credit Spread (OAS) — ICE BofA US High Yield Index option-adjusted spread (%, daily)