10Y-3M Yield Spread
10-year minus 3-month Treasury yield spread (%, recession indicator)
| Property | Value |
|---|---|
| Category | macro |
| Unit | % |
| Resolution | 1d |
| Assets | MACRO |
| Tier | Basic |
| API Endpoint | GET /v1/macro/spreads |
| Field | spread_10y_3m |
Overview
The spread between the 10-year and 3-month US Treasury yields (DGS10 - DGS3MO). The New York Fed's preferred recession-probability model uses this spread as its primary input. Daily frequency, expressed in percent.
Interpretation
- Positive spread reflects expansion-mode pricing and a healthy term premium.
- Inverted spread (negative) is the NY Fed's go-to recession signal. Inversions have preceded every US recession since 1969.
- The 10Y-3M spread tends to invert later than the 10Y-2Y spread, so it often confirms (rather than leads) recession warnings.
Use Cases
- Use the NY Fed recession probability series alongside this spread to time defensive positioning in BTC portfolios.
- Cross-check with
macro_spread_10y_2yfor confirmation of curve inversion. - Pair with
macro_initial_claimsandmacro_unemployment_rateto triangulate macro deterioration.
API Usage
curl -H "Authorization: Bearer YOUR_API_KEY" \
"https://api.blocklens.co/v1/macro/spreads?start_date=2024-01-01&end_date=2024-12-31&limit=365"
Related Metrics
- 10Y-2Y Yield Spread — 10-year minus 2-year Treasury yield spread (%, recession indicator)
- 10-Year Treasury Yield — US 10-year Treasury constant maturity yield (%, daily)
- 13-Week T-Bill Yield (CBOE) — CBOE 13-Week Treasury Bill Yield ^IRX (%, daily)
- Unemployment Rate — US civilian unemployment rate (%, monthly)